You want your Ketchum condo to pull its weight when you are not here. The challenge is knowing which units actually rent well across winter powder weeks and summer festival season, and which ones only look good online. In this guide, you’ll learn a clear, step-by-step way to gauge short-term and long-term rental potential using real market signals, the right metrics, and a simple underwriting model. Let’s dive in.
Understand Ketchum seasonality
Ketchum is a dual-season mountain market with two main demand peaks. Winter centers on skiing at Sun Valley’s Bald Mountain, while summer brings hiking, biking, fishing, and a full calendar of arts and festivals. Expect softer occupancy in late spring and early fall shoulder periods, with weekends and holidays commanding a premium in both seasons.
Use local calendars to map your pricing and availability to demand. Check event highlights and visitor guides on Visit Sun Valley and lift season information on the Sun Valley Resort. These sources help you anticipate high-demand weeks, from holiday ski periods to headline summer events.
Map demand drivers
Several factors shape when and why guests book in Ketchum:
- Skiing and winter sports driven by Sun Valley access and snow conditions.
- Summer outdoor recreation, festivals, and performing arts that boost weekend demand.
- Drive markets like Boise and Salt Lake City that support shorter booking windows.
- A notable second-home and destination visitor base that values comfort, convenience, and service.
Plan for minimum-stay strategies on peak weeks and more flexible settings during shoulder periods. Align pricing by day of week and month to capture premium weekends without leaving weekdays underpriced.
Pull the right performance data
You can build a realistic picture of rental potential with a few trusted sources:
- Short-term rental market dashboards: AirDNA and STR for occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, booking windows, and seasonal curves.
- Tourism context: Visit Sun Valley and Sun Valley Resort for event calendars and lift season dates.
- Local indicators: Blaine County and the City of Ketchum for lodging tax data if available, plus property records for unit details.
- Employment and visitation context: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for county employment trends.
- Listing-level checks: Browse Airbnb and VRBO calendars and reviews for comps in the same building or block.
How to assemble your view:
- Compile a 12-month occupancy and ADR curve from AirDNA or STR and spot the peaks and troughs.
- Cross-check high-demand weeks with event calendars and lift season dates.
- Identify 3 to 5 true comps in the same or similar buildings and note ADR, availability, and reviews.
- Validate the seasonal pattern with any public lodging tax trends you can access.
- If you are buying, request historical host statements or P&Ls to anchor your assumptions.
Read the metrics that matter
Focus on a handful of indicators that reveal both potential and risk:
- Occupancy: The percentage of nights rented per month. Compare your target unit to building or micro-area comps.
- ADR: The average daily rate for booked nights. Watch monthly swings and weekend premiums.
- RevPAR: Revenue per available night, which blends occupancy and ADR for an apples-to-apples view.
- Booking window: Days between booking and arrival. Longer lead times on holidays let you hold rate.
- Length of stay: Helps set minimums, turnovers, and cleaning schedules.
- Channel mix and cancellation: Understand how different platforms and policies affect net revenue.
If sources disagree, look for consistency in the seasonal shape and weight assumptions conservatively. RevPAR is your best metric to compare across units with different minimums and layouts.
Match unit features to guests
Product-market fit matters in a resort market. Score your unit’s features against likely guest needs:
- High impact: Proximity to lifts or shuttle, covered parking, reliable heating, secure ski or bike storage, in-unit laundry, pet policies if allowed.
- Medium impact: Views, balcony or patio, hot tub access, elevator access, easy parking.
- Useful extras: Air conditioning for summer heat waves, simple self check-in, gear-drying areas, thoughtful workspace setup.
Features that reduce friction or elevate comfort can support higher ADR and better shoulder-season bookings. Photos and listing copy should showcase these strengths clearly.
Add up true operating costs
Net returns depend on a realistic cost base. Build your budget with these categories:
- Fixed and recurring: HOA dues, property taxes, insurance, utilities you pay, internet and TV, accounting, and any fixed management fees.
- Variable per stay: Cleaning and turnover, linens and supplies, consumables, guest amenities, channel commissions or host fees.
- One-time or periodic: Furnishings and setup, appliance or furniture replacement, seasonal maintenance.
- Reserves: A common practice is setting aside 5 to 10 percent of gross revenue for capital needs.
Track cleaning and supplies carefully. Turnover-heavy calendars can erode margin even when occupancy looks strong.
Choose a management model
Pick the approach that fits your time, goals, and scale:
- Owner-managed: Lowest fee, most time and coordination.
- Co-host or partial management: Usually 10 to 20 percent plus cleaning. Good if you handle pricing or guest messaging.
- Full-service vacation manager: Often 20 to 35 percent of booking revenue, typically excluding cleaning. Turnkey support, dynamic pricing, and on-the-ground service.
- Long-term manager: Usually 6 to 12 percent of monthly rent. Lower turnover and fewer operating expenses, but lower gross revenue in resort markets.
- Hybrid strategy: Short-term in peak seasons and long-term in off-season if allowed by your HOA. Requires careful planning and clear contracts.
Professional photography, dynamic pricing, and guest experience upgrades are proven levers for both occupancy and ADR.
Build a simple pro forma
A basic model keeps you honest and helps compare options:
- Revenue by month: Nights available × expected occupancy × ADR.
- Operating expenses: Fixed plus variable costs, including platform and management fees.
- Net Operating Income: Revenue minus operating expenses.
- Cash Flow Before Debt Service: NOI minus reserves and planned capital expenses.
- Returns: Cash-on-cash and cap rate proxies. Track sensitivity to occupancy and ADR shifts.
Create three columns in your model for base, conservative, and upside scenarios. Keep assumptions consistent across comps so differences reflect property performance, not model quirks.
Stress test outcomes
Build confidence by testing what happens if demand changes:
- Base case: Historical average occupancy and ADR from your sources.
- Conservative case: Reduce occupancy by 15 to 25 percent and ADR by 10 to 15 percent.
- Upside case: Improve occupancy or ADR by 10 to 20 percent with better management and marketing.
- Breakeven occupancy: The point where revenue covers cash expenses and required debt service.
If your breakeven sits too close to shoulder-season reality, revisit price positioning, management options, and investment in guest amenities.
On-site guest appeal checklist
Use this list during showings to score real-world functionality:
- Parking: Is there convenient guest parking or a drop-off zone?
- Access: Secure entry, easy check-in, and smooth luggage handling.
- Gear storage: Practical ski and bike storage plus drying space.
- Layout and noise: Privacy from neighbors and quiet sleeping areas.
- Laundry: In-unit or easy access in building.
- Staging and durability: Furnishings that photograph well and hold up to turnover.
- Target fit: Does the space serve couples, small families, or ski groups without friction?
Small upgrades that reduce guest questions or maintenance calls often pay for themselves in reviews and repeat stays.
Exit and resale context
Plan for liquidity and value protection. Pull recent condo sale comps and days on market in the same building or micro-area. If you need macro signals, you can review high-level housing trends from reputable research outlets, then validate with local comps. Score the unit’s uniqueness, view, and amenities against recent sales to judge exit resilience.
When to call a local advisor
There are moments when local expertise saves time and improves outcomes. Reach out when you need:
- MLS condo comps and precise pricing trends in your target buildings.
- HOA documents and rules that affect rental feasibility and minimum stays.
- Local color on seasonal demand, event impacts, and booking trends.
- Property access for inspections, professional photos, or staging help.
- Introductions to vetted managers, cleaners, and short-term operators.
- Help negotiating purchase terms tied to rental income, including requests for seller financials.
- A referral to lenders familiar with condo financing in the Sun Valley and Ketchum area.
Your next steps
If a unit passes your seasonality and product-fit tests, build your three-scenario model and confirm costs line by line. Cross-check comps, request historicals when possible, and pressure test your breakeven. When the numbers work in both winter and summer, you are on your way to a smart Ketchum purchase.
If you want curated comps, HOA insight, or a second set of eyes on a pro forma, connect with Corey on the Go. You will get boutique, data-informed guidance rooted in decades of local experience.
FAQs
What months drive the most rental demand in Ketchum?
- Ketchum typically peaks in winter ski months and high summer, with softer occupancy in late spring and early fall shoulder periods.
How do I compare two condos’ rental potential?
- Use RevPAR, not just ADR or occupancy, then adjust for features like lift access, parking, laundry, and storage to judge real guest appeal.
What is a typical vacation rental management fee?
- Full-service vacation rental management commonly runs about 20 to 35 percent of booking revenue, often excluding cleaning.
How do HOA rules affect rentals in condos?
- HOA policies may set minimum stays, guest registration, or other rules, so review documents early and confirm feasibility before underwriting revenue.
What is RevPAR and why is it useful?
- RevPAR is revenue per available night and blends price with occupancy, which makes it ideal for comparing different units or minimum-stay strategies.
Can a hybrid short-term and long-term strategy work?
- A hybrid can work if your HOA allows it and you plan contracts carefully, using short-term during peak seasons and longer stays in the off-season.
